Comment on Taiwan's recent Presidential Elections

I was watching the Presidential election in Taiwan with interest these past months. While my sympathies were with Tsai Ing-wen, I thought that Ma Ying-jeou would probably be re-elected. While he did not do all that he promised 4 years ago (what politician can claim that), and he seemed too close to China, my sense is that he did not do a bad job. Certainly the opening of direct flights with China, greater academic exchanges, tourism, etc., are positives. Taiwan's economy is very much connected with China and needs to be given space to grow in that way. Politically, however, the people of Taiwan are not interested in being ruled from Beijing. Most see themselves as "Taiwan Ren 台灣人" first, and some sort of cultural Chinese "Hua Ren 華人" second (or perhaps third). Taiwan does not see Beijing as the center, and I doubt that will change for this or the next generation. Tsai Ing-wen ran a great campaign and projected a professionalism and vision for Taiwan that was positive. Yet this did not seem to be her turn. She might win if she runs 4 years from now, but not this time.

The best explanation I've seen of the election results that focuses on the Taiwan-China, and to a lesser degree US-connection, is in this editorial by Yuriko Koike, Japan's former minister of defense and National Security Adviser. I'm biased in this assessment because it matches well with what I think. But this is right. I was in Taiwan when China shot missiles over Taiwan in 1996, and it was effective in bolstering Lee Teng-hui's support and pushing people away from China. Chen Shui-bian was also helped in his two successful campaigns by Beijing's objections. This time Beijing stayed quiet and the outcome was different. Let's hope this is good for Taiwan-China relations.