Decline of the US?
On the day after S & P downgrades the US credit rating, in the week after the great "compromise" on US debt, it is hard to have much hope for the United States and its future. Sure, the US has gone through greater difficulties in its past, Civil War, the Great Depression, WWII, but it feels different this time around. The eight years of the Bush Jr. administration were ones of squandered opportunities. Instead of investing in infrastructure, paying down debts, and laying the foundation for the future, very little was done. The country lived off the prosperity and hard work of previous generations. Then everything blew up in 2007 and 2008, due to the greed of the overgrown Financial Industry. (I highly recommend reading The Big Short by Michael Lewis.) The corrections made by the Obama administration, while noble in intent, have not gone far enough. Then the election of 2010, in which a minority of Americans participated, when those opposed to Obama were motivated and his supporters apathetic and discouraged, gave power to a vocal and persistent minority. Obama made a huge mistake in December, 2010, when he agreed to continue the Bush tax cuts, and did not raise the debt ceiling. Now the situation does not look good, and it is hard to see how an election can improve things. The hole is too deep. The foundation lacking.
What is the alternative? Flying back from China this summer I sat next to a young American man returning to see his family in Chicago. (Like me, he graduated from UIUC.) He had been doing business in China for a number of years, then recently decided to move there, to Suzhou. He is learning Chinese. There were many other Americans on the plane that were traveling alone, presumably doing business. Our neighbor's daughter recently got a job in Edmond, not because of her engineering degree, but because of her Chinese ability. Now she's working hard to improve her Chinese.
China has its problems: internet restrictions, political controls, wealth discrepancy--there's also a property bubble. Yet it's been investing heavily in infrastructure the last 20 years, and has a motivated, hard working population. There is a dynamism in China that you don't find in the US. I also believe that the politics will eventually change. The energy of the Chinese people cannot be held back, and there is a momentum that will last another 20 years at least. So many US, European, and Asian companies are investing in China, as they see that's where the growth potential lies. People from all over the world are moving there. (The other "hot" markets today are India, Africa and Brazil. I met a number of African students in China, and see, like others, growing connections between the peoples of Africa and China.) In many ways it is like the US a hundred years ago, when Europeans (and to a lesser extent Asians) were leaving their troubled lands to make it in the US. Is China that place today?
I've posted pictures of my summer travelings in China here:
What is the alternative? Flying back from China this summer I sat next to a young American man returning to see his family in Chicago. (Like me, he graduated from UIUC.) He had been doing business in China for a number of years, then recently decided to move there, to Suzhou. He is learning Chinese. There were many other Americans on the plane that were traveling alone, presumably doing business. Our neighbor's daughter recently got a job in Edmond, not because of her engineering degree, but because of her Chinese ability. Now she's working hard to improve her Chinese.
China has its problems: internet restrictions, political controls, wealth discrepancy--there's also a property bubble. Yet it's been investing heavily in infrastructure the last 20 years, and has a motivated, hard working population. There is a dynamism in China that you don't find in the US. I also believe that the politics will eventually change. The energy of the Chinese people cannot be held back, and there is a momentum that will last another 20 years at least. So many US, European, and Asian companies are investing in China, as they see that's where the growth potential lies. People from all over the world are moving there. (The other "hot" markets today are India, Africa and Brazil. I met a number of African students in China, and see, like others, growing connections between the peoples of Africa and China.) In many ways it is like the US a hundred years ago, when Europeans (and to a lesser extent Asians) were leaving their troubled lands to make it in the US. Is China that place today?
I've posted pictures of my summer travelings in China here:
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| Summer in China 2011 |
I concur with your analysis of the current situation. I think we spoke about this last year in China, but I sounded extremely pessimistic at the time. Though I've always analyzed the situation, and I've followed what was happening since Clinton's impeachment in the late 90s.Gathered information, debated over the internet on forms and chatrooms. Overall everyone told me "everything is fine you're too pessimistic" but I kind of saw myself at just noticing the pattern and noticing the personalities that are able to hold a political seat of power, and realizing how they are using such power. I think the biggest challenge will lie with my generation and those after mines. Because essentially especially with the debt-ceiling deal. A lot of the youth is being systemically set up to fail and/or being locked out of the economy altogether. A lot of students aspiring to attend graduate school might now be able to do that anymore since starting next summer graduate students won't be able to defer on current loans they are paying off, and new loans they take, they must start paying them off as soon as they receive them. Essentially there is no room for people to try to enrich themselves. I told you about my plans to do the masters international program with peace corps, but I am having second thoughts if things become this difficult, and I might instead attend graduate school in Norway and just do some part-time work, save up enough to sponsor my own student visa, etc etc. I realize though not many my age will have this kind of opportunity and those who do won't look in such directions to obtain them. But I think for the most part once fresh faces enters politics things will start to move in a positive direction once again, and I think by then those motivated to pursue that career path will most likely be more pragmatic, competent leaders than those currently holding political seats. Here's to hoping and building towards a better future. *cheers*
ReplyDeleteoh and still going to give the taiwan scholarship a go.
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