Wartime Lessons for COVID-19
Here in Macau we are safe and well. There is no community-based transmission of covid-19! The government has a clear and effective strategy for keeping us safe, even catching the attention of some international media.
But each day there are reports of recent returnees who test positive for covid-19. All who return must first go into quarantine for 14 days. Now there are a total of 11 hotels set up to receive those in quarantine, providing more than 2,500 rooms. These "accommodations" are free for Macau residents. Those without Macau ID--mainly non-resident workers--have to pay 5,600 MOP (about 700 USD). But since 19 March such persons can no longer enter Macau. Nor can we leave Macau, as the ferries have been shut down, the airport has only one or two flights per day to cities in China, and the only link to Hong Kong is the HK-Macao-Zhuhai bridge. The bridge is limited to Hong Kong residents, and Macau residents. But Macau residents cannot use the bridge for transit through Hong Kong airport; they must first receive permission to travel to Hong Kong, and then be quarantined in Hong Kong for 14 days, before being free to move about. We are truly shut down and must wait for the virus to pass.
In light of this situation, with an unknown end-date, and impacts not only on public health, but also on the economy and international trade, what is a good course of action? Some (Boris Johnson's UK government, prior to 16 March) have argued that we should just let the virus pass through, so that people develop "herd immunity." Donald Trump famously said he wants the country open by Easter. And the Lieutenant Governor of Texas, Dan Patrick, suggested that grandparents like him should be willing to sacrifice their lives so that the economy would not be harmed.
These positions are not without merit. We are facing the challenge of a global pandemic. This means that even if it is stopped in one country or region (such as Macau), as long as the virus is unchecked and spreading in some other place, we cannot return to "normal." Barriers to the free flow of persons and trade must remain in place. Many businesses will have to close, people lose their jobs, governments run out of money. And relationships can be strengthened or broken. Both divorces and the number of babies are expected to rise in the coming months. For me personally, it seems less likely that I will be able to travel to the U.S. this summer and see my children, parents, and family who live there. Fighting the virus is costing a lot, with no end in sight.
But are the only options either to surrender and let the virus run free, or to do a China-like total shutdown? Or are there other alternatives?
While I do not claim to be wise enough, nor have sufficient knowledge to know what is best, I do have some ideas. We can look to the past for examples of leaders who have fought and won wars, and that may have lessons for us today. One example from history that comes to mind is how the Athenian General and leader, Themistocles (BCE 524 - 460) led the Athenians to a great victory over the Persians.
As recorded by the historian Herodotus, the Greeks and Persians fought two major wars. The first was led by the Persian king, Darius, who wanted to conquer Greece as punishment for a revolt of Greek city-states in Asia Minor (today's Turkey). However, on the fields of the famous Battle of Marathon, an alliance of Greek city-states defeated the might Persian army in 490. This was followed by ten years of peace, when Athens grew in wealth and power. Themistocles came to prominence at that time and built Athens' navy.
The Persians, however, did not forget their defeat, and led by King Xerxes, in 480 invaded once again. After crossing the straits of Bosphorous, Xerxes successfully conquered Greek city-states and marched south and west along the coast. City-states had the option of either surrendering and hoping for good terms, or fighting with the risk of total annihilation. Many city-states chose the former option. Themistocles, however, had other plans.
After the Persians defeated the Greek alliance at the pass of Thermopylae (the well known battle where King Leonidas and his bodyguard of 300 Spartans died), the Persians were free to advance and take all of Attica, that is, the territory controlled by Athens. Rather than stay and fight within the walls of the city, Themistocles emptied the city, taking his troops and most of the population south to the island of Salamis. The Persians entered the city, and after defeating a small rear guard on the Acropolis, sacked the city.
Archaeological evidence of the destruction of Athens is abundant. When I spent a semester in Athens in 1985, I recall my art history and monuments teachers talking about the many ruins and artifacts that were buried then, and have since been recovered in digs around the city. The destruction of the city was complete. Themistocles left the beautiful buildings, works of art, wealth, and riches of Athens in order to save the people.
What happened next is one of the most famous naval battles of all time. Off the coast of Salamis, Themistocles and the allied Greek forces lured the Persian navy into narrow straits. There, the smaller and more maneuverable Greek triremes scored a decisive victory over the larger Persian navy, while King Xerxes watched the battle from a nearby mountain peak. Xerxes retreated to Persia. But he left his General and the bulk of his army in Greece (living off conquered lands), and a year later met the allied Greeks in another famous battle, the Battle of Plataea, where the Greeks were victorious and finally forced the Persians to leave. Following these victories, the city-state of Athens entered what is known as the "Golden Age of Athens," a period of 30 years when led by Pericles, Athens had its greatest achievements.
Okay, so what does this history lesson teach us?
First, save the people! When the line of defense at Thermopylae was broken, Themistocles believed that the best option was to abandon the city, retreat, and save the people. The lesson to those like Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick is that the people's lives come first. You can sacrifice the city and the economy now, as long as you save the people. After the war is won, the economy can be rebuilt, just as Athens was rebuilt.
Second, be prepared! After defeating Persian King Darius the first time, Themistocles knew that the Persian threat remained. He spent money and treasure on building up the Athenian navy, knowing that this was their strongest weapon against a superior foe. Unfortunately, it is quite apparent that the US was not prepared this time to face a pandemic. The pandemic task force was disbanded, and stockpiles of hospital equipment were not built to meet the demands of this crisis. This contrasts with what some countries in Asia did after SARS, such as Taiwan, which created its National Health Command Center to respond to the "next" epidemic.
I believe that the Macau government was better prepared because it learned a lesson from what happened in 2017, when Typhoon Hato caused death and destruction. I lived through that typhoon and know that Macau was not prepared. But when another typhoon arrived in 2018, we were prepared, and no one died, and the recovery was much quicker. The Macau government knew that it had to be prepared and it had to protect the people. And so this lesson seems to have paid off as we face a different kind of threat. There has been no panic here, and trust in the government is high.
Third, build alliances! One part of the history that I did not explain is that another reason for the success of Themistocles and the Athenians was the fact that the Greek city-states were allied. The Persians were successful when the city-states were isolated. But when facing an allied foe, as happened at the Battle of Plataea, the Persians were defeated. Unfortunately, history shows that when these alliances broke down, so did Athens, as happened at the end of the age of Pericles when Athens and Sparta fought a protracted and bloody war. Likewise, to defeat covid-19 will require international alliances. As long as there is an outbreak in one nation or part of the world, the rest of the world is not safe. All nations must be united to achieve victory.
Last, be creative! Themistocles cleverly used the features of the water off the coast of Salamis to his advantage. He knew that his smaller, but more maneuverable ships, had the advantage over the larger and slower Persian ones. Likewise, the strategies for defeating covid-19 today will have to build upon local circumstances. Places such as Taiwan that are islands can more readily control the flow of visitors. Macau is not an island like Taiwan, but is small and has a clearly defined border that helps control the flow of people. But other nations and places have different features, and must use what it is at hand to develop effective strategies to defeat the virus.
My apologies for the long post this time. But I have been thinking about this and want to write it down. Feel free to disagree or suggest better alternatives. We are all in this together!!
In light of this situation, with an unknown end-date, and impacts not only on public health, but also on the economy and international trade, what is a good course of action? Some (Boris Johnson's UK government, prior to 16 March) have argued that we should just let the virus pass through, so that people develop "herd immunity." Donald Trump famously said he wants the country open by Easter. And the Lieutenant Governor of Texas, Dan Patrick, suggested that grandparents like him should be willing to sacrifice their lives so that the economy would not be harmed.
These positions are not without merit. We are facing the challenge of a global pandemic. This means that even if it is stopped in one country or region (such as Macau), as long as the virus is unchecked and spreading in some other place, we cannot return to "normal." Barriers to the free flow of persons and trade must remain in place. Many businesses will have to close, people lose their jobs, governments run out of money. And relationships can be strengthened or broken. Both divorces and the number of babies are expected to rise in the coming months. For me personally, it seems less likely that I will be able to travel to the U.S. this summer and see my children, parents, and family who live there. Fighting the virus is costing a lot, with no end in sight.
But are the only options either to surrender and let the virus run free, or to do a China-like total shutdown? Or are there other alternatives?
While I do not claim to be wise enough, nor have sufficient knowledge to know what is best, I do have some ideas. We can look to the past for examples of leaders who have fought and won wars, and that may have lessons for us today. One example from history that comes to mind is how the Athenian General and leader, Themistocles (BCE 524 - 460) led the Athenians to a great victory over the Persians.
As recorded by the historian Herodotus, the Greeks and Persians fought two major wars. The first was led by the Persian king, Darius, who wanted to conquer Greece as punishment for a revolt of Greek city-states in Asia Minor (today's Turkey). However, on the fields of the famous Battle of Marathon, an alliance of Greek city-states defeated the might Persian army in 490. This was followed by ten years of peace, when Athens grew in wealth and power. Themistocles came to prominence at that time and built Athens' navy.
The Persians, however, did not forget their defeat, and led by King Xerxes, in 480 invaded once again. After crossing the straits of Bosphorous, Xerxes successfully conquered Greek city-states and marched south and west along the coast. City-states had the option of either surrendering and hoping for good terms, or fighting with the risk of total annihilation. Many city-states chose the former option. Themistocles, however, had other plans.
After the Persians defeated the Greek alliance at the pass of Thermopylae (the well known battle where King Leonidas and his bodyguard of 300 Spartans died), the Persians were free to advance and take all of Attica, that is, the territory controlled by Athens. Rather than stay and fight within the walls of the city, Themistocles emptied the city, taking his troops and most of the population south to the island of Salamis. The Persians entered the city, and after defeating a small rear guard on the Acropolis, sacked the city.
Archaeological evidence of the destruction of Athens is abundant. When I spent a semester in Athens in 1985, I recall my art history and monuments teachers talking about the many ruins and artifacts that were buried then, and have since been recovered in digs around the city. The destruction of the city was complete. Themistocles left the beautiful buildings, works of art, wealth, and riches of Athens in order to save the people.
What happened next is one of the most famous naval battles of all time. Off the coast of Salamis, Themistocles and the allied Greek forces lured the Persian navy into narrow straits. There, the smaller and more maneuverable Greek triremes scored a decisive victory over the larger Persian navy, while King Xerxes watched the battle from a nearby mountain peak. Xerxes retreated to Persia. But he left his General and the bulk of his army in Greece (living off conquered lands), and a year later met the allied Greeks in another famous battle, the Battle of Plataea, where the Greeks were victorious and finally forced the Persians to leave. Following these victories, the city-state of Athens entered what is known as the "Golden Age of Athens," a period of 30 years when led by Pericles, Athens had its greatest achievements.
Okay, so what does this history lesson teach us?
First, save the people! When the line of defense at Thermopylae was broken, Themistocles believed that the best option was to abandon the city, retreat, and save the people. The lesson to those like Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick is that the people's lives come first. You can sacrifice the city and the economy now, as long as you save the people. After the war is won, the economy can be rebuilt, just as Athens was rebuilt.
Second, be prepared! After defeating Persian King Darius the first time, Themistocles knew that the Persian threat remained. He spent money and treasure on building up the Athenian navy, knowing that this was their strongest weapon against a superior foe. Unfortunately, it is quite apparent that the US was not prepared this time to face a pandemic. The pandemic task force was disbanded, and stockpiles of hospital equipment were not built to meet the demands of this crisis. This contrasts with what some countries in Asia did after SARS, such as Taiwan, which created its National Health Command Center to respond to the "next" epidemic.
I believe that the Macau government was better prepared because it learned a lesson from what happened in 2017, when Typhoon Hato caused death and destruction. I lived through that typhoon and know that Macau was not prepared. But when another typhoon arrived in 2018, we were prepared, and no one died, and the recovery was much quicker. The Macau government knew that it had to be prepared and it had to protect the people. And so this lesson seems to have paid off as we face a different kind of threat. There has been no panic here, and trust in the government is high.
Third, build alliances! One part of the history that I did not explain is that another reason for the success of Themistocles and the Athenians was the fact that the Greek city-states were allied. The Persians were successful when the city-states were isolated. But when facing an allied foe, as happened at the Battle of Plataea, the Persians were defeated. Unfortunately, history shows that when these alliances broke down, so did Athens, as happened at the end of the age of Pericles when Athens and Sparta fought a protracted and bloody war. Likewise, to defeat covid-19 will require international alliances. As long as there is an outbreak in one nation or part of the world, the rest of the world is not safe. All nations must be united to achieve victory.
Last, be creative! Themistocles cleverly used the features of the water off the coast of Salamis to his advantage. He knew that his smaller, but more maneuverable ships, had the advantage over the larger and slower Persian ones. Likewise, the strategies for defeating covid-19 today will have to build upon local circumstances. Places such as Taiwan that are islands can more readily control the flow of visitors. Macau is not an island like Taiwan, but is small and has a clearly defined border that helps control the flow of people. But other nations and places have different features, and must use what it is at hand to develop effective strategies to defeat the virus.
My apologies for the long post this time. But I have been thinking about this and want to write it down. Feel free to disagree or suggest better alternatives. We are all in this together!!
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